AP STATISTICS: The Course !
WELCOME! To the most popular elective course on campus, AP Stats! We have an interesting, challenging and rich program to serve the over 270 students enrolled in AP Stats this year.
By now, you have probably heard that Stats is the study of the distribution of data, and the testing of Òeducated guessesÓ (hypotheses) to see if the data will support our assumptions. That, in a nutshell, is what we will explore this year.
THE 4 MAIN THEMES OF AP STATS:
AP Stats has 4 major components to the curriculum:
1) Exploratory Analysis, depicting/analyzing/graphing data
2) Planning a study: what to measure, how to measure it
3) Probability: What are the chances that a certain event or sequence of events will occur
4) Statistical Inference: Does the data support the conclusion?
Each of these themes will comprise a large portion of the curriculum, and we will explore each area in detail in preparation for the AP Exam, which for Stats is in the first week of May, 2007.
The last few weeks prior to the AP Exam will be reserved for testing practice to ensure your preparedness for the exam. Every student is strongly urged to take the exam, so that your progress can be measured.
THE TEXT:
We will use the second edition of Peck, Olsen & Devore (POD) ISBN 0-534-46710-5 published by Thomson, Learning. The author, Roxanne Peck, runs AP stats seminars, and is a professor of statistics at Cal-Poly San Luis Obispo. The book content is highly correlated with the material on the Ap Stats test.
Additionally, we will use the BarronÕs Guide to the AP Stats test. WeÕll use the most recent edition, (4rd ).
ASSESSING/EVALUATION/GRADES
A points system will be used to compute your grade. The following methods of assessment will be employed:
1) Tests/QuizÕs ranging from 20 to 50 points each
2) Homework packets, 10-20 points each, collected approximately every three weeks.
3) Focus problems; especially relevant examples which may be treated as
10 point mini-projects
4) Group tests/quizÕs ranging from 20 to 30 points each
5) Projects/studies which involve gathering and analyzing data, as well as devising the
study. The end of year activity is a project (in lieu of final exam).
GRADES:
Based upon your percentage of points available:
> 89.5 % A
80-89 % B
70-79 % C
65-69 % D
< 65 % F
MATERIALS:
1) Graphing Calculator: TI-83+ or TI-84 is REQUIRED !!
2) A straight Edge
3) .5 mm mechanical pencil
+ Colored pens/pencils
eraser
4) Peck, Olsen, DeVore text + BarronÕs Guide (2nd or 3rd edition)
We will also utilize MINITAB on occasion to analyze data sets. Interpretation of MINITAB printouts, in conjunction with statistical tools on the TI-83/84 is a major component to the statistical inference section of the course. Familiarity with the MINITAB printout and graphing calculator applications will be interwoven with daily instruction. Please bring your graphing calculator on a daily basis. We do have some TI-83Õs to loan for in class activities.
Several methods of instruction will be employed, including, but not limited to: direct instruction/lecture, guided problem solving, group instruction, instruction w/technology and graphing calculator overhead projector, team projects with presentations. A continual effort will be apparent to link text problems to real world statistical applications, culminating in group project presentations in June.
ATTENDANCE
Attendance is vital for any AP course. QUIZÕs CANNOT be made up. Your lowest score will be recorded for any missed QUIZ. Chapter TESTS will be made up at mutually agreeable times, usually before school
For any school activity, you must obtain permission BEFORE the activity, or it will be treated as a cut.
We have approximately 150 instructional days before the AP test., the first week in May, 2007. We will cover all of the main topics in the text book, Chapters 1-12. We will also focus on practice free response questions from old AP tests, a key component linked to our very high AP stats passage rate!
We will also have a group project to wrap up the year in June.
COURSE OUTLINE USING POD TEXT:
CHAPTER 1: An introduction to stats (time = 1-2 days)
CHAPTER 2: Collecting Data (12-15 days)
á Types of data
á Observational studies vs. experiments
á Bias in sampling; different kinds
á SRS
á Stratified random samples; cluster sampling
á DOE
á Controls and control groups
á Treatments
á The Placebo effect
á Blocking
á Replication
CHAPTER 3: Displaying Data (4 days)
á Pie/Bar Charts
á Dotplots
á Stemplots
á Histograms/Bar Graphs
á Skewness
á Cumulative Relative Frequency Graphs (OJIVE)
CHAPTER 4: Describing Data (8 days)
á Mean + Median
á IQR + Standard Deviation/Variance
á Boxplots w/Outliers TI-built ins
á Empirical Rule + Chebyshevs Rule
á z scores percentiles quartiles
á Transforming data
CHAPTER 5: 2 dimensional data sets (15 days)
á Scatterplots
á The r value
á Properties/graphs of r
á The method least squares
á Regression
á Built in TI methods
á Residual plots
á r squared
á Influential data points
á Some applications with non linear data: exploring data
CHAPTER 6: Probability (15 days)
á Terms and definitions
á Law of Large Numbers
á Conditional probability
á Independence/dependence
á Addition + multiplication rules
á Simulation with the TI
á BarronÕs topics: advanced probability with VennÕs and activities with probability
CHAPTER 7: Random Variables (16 days)
á Discrete Random Variables;: activities with dice
á Continuous Random variables
á Expected Value
á Mean and standard deviation of a discrete random variable
á The binomial: ShaqÕs free throws
á The geometric
á The normal distribution
á TI applications + menus
CHAPTER 8: Sampling distributions (7 days)
á Sampling Distributions
á The CLT what a miracle!
á Distributions for means and proportions
CHAPTER 9: Confidence Intervals (9 days)
á CIÕs for a proportion
á CIÕs for a mean
á Interpretation of levels
á Interpretation of Intervals
á Conditions
á Margins of error + sample size
á Solving for n
á Solving for acceptable error: The Bookstore activity
á t and z intervals
NOTE: Semester Final falls during Chapter 9: WeÕll break for 3 days to review multiple choice assessment techniques: Resource: BarronÕs Guide
CHAPTER 10: Hypo testing (10-11 days)
á Ho and Ha
á Why hypo test?
á Type I and Type II error
á Proportions and means in a hypo test
á The p-value, interpretation
á One and 2 sided tests
á Power
á Conditions
CHAPTER 11: Hypo testing with 2 samples (10-11 days)
á 2 sample z and t for mu
á 2 sample hypo test for pie
á Conditions + assumptions
á CI for 2 sample differences in means and pie
á The paired t
á Using all the tools in the TI-83/84
á Which test?
CHAPTER 12: The Chi-square tests (6 days)
á The Chi square distribution
á Goodness of Fit
á Independence
á Conditions
á Applications
á Using the TI-83/84
á Getting ready for group projects: which test?
CHAPTER 13: Inference for Slope (4 days)
á Hypo test for slope Ð the linregttest
á CI for slope
á Interpreting MINITAB
AP TEST PREPRATION: (every day to test)
á Old Free response activities
á Old MC test questions
á Problems in Groups
POST AP TEST: THE PROJECT
The Project Activity with Presentation(s)
The end of year project will conclude our study of statistics for this year! HereÕs what you will be doing:
In groups of up to 4 students, develop null and alternative hypotheses for a problem or situation that interests you. Experiments are MUCH preferred to surveys, and a survey must be especially large and well researched. Run a statistical analysis using one of these tests:
Z TEST (example: find the average # of books read per month or year from some large
population and compare to your own data gathered on Mission students or other people you know)
PAIRED T TEST (example: find 20 ÒvolunteersÓ and time them in a two mile run. Put them
on a Krispy Kreme diet, or other ÒtreatmentÓ for 10 days and test them again)
2 SAMPLE Z PROPORTION (example: the questionnaire or approval rating depending on
wording of the question; make two different questions. Use large samples, >50 per
sample)
2 SAMPLE Z OR T TEST (example: see test on LAUJACKS vs. HYDROFRYS to refresh
your memory on this technique)
Chi-square test. This tests for an association between variables.
Other types of hypo tests can be run if you ask Fry or Lau.
Your project must include a well designed poster with the components listed below. You may receive a maximum score of 95/100 for a poster and a presentation. To earn a maximum of 100/100 your presentation must include either a video or a Power Point presentation of your experiment/project.
TITLE ______________ (10 points)
INTRODUCTION + RESEARCH HYPOTHESES: ______________ (15 points)
DATA ANALYSIS ______________ (20 points)
NEATNESS/ATTRACTIVENESS OF REPORT ______________ (15 points)
CONCLUSION/SUMMARY OF REPORT ______________ (15 points)
ORAL REPORT Ð between 5 and 10 minutes in length ______________ (25 points)
Timeline:
Organize your group of up to 4 people & submit Ho/Ha MAY 24
Projects will be presented starting May 31st. Your teacher will give you precise date.